RISING TIDES
Observations from the IMC Research Process

Ghost Fleet Gets Ghosted – Shipping Rates Catch a Tailwind

A crackdown on shadow fleets and security-driven route diversions are tightening supply and supporting global freight rates.

• The Ghost Fleet Is Losing Its Cover. US and allied authorities are escalating enforcement against vessels moving sanctioned oil, targeting weak links in the network such as opaque ownership, flag-hopping, AIS “going dark,” spoofing, and ship-to-ship transfers. As the cost and risk of noncompliant shipping rises, more cargo is being forced back toward insured, compliant tonnage. With oil flows firm, geopolitical tensions elevated, and vessel ownership increasingly concentrated, VLCC freight rates have surged to multi-year highs.
• The Map Got Longer. Security risks in the Red Sea have forced more voyages around the Cape of Good Hope, adding miles and days while tying up vessels for longer stretches – an understated way that capacity tightens and global freight rates stay supported.
• Operators Are Cashing In. Longer voyages and tighter effective capacity are creating a window for disciplined operators to lock in attractive economics and prioritize cash returns. Companies focused on crude oil transportation, such as Frontline (FRO) and Okeanis Eco Tankers (ECO), are benefiting from elevated tanker rates. Genco Shipping & Trading (GNK) captures a similar rising-tide effect in dry bulk as global freight prices firm.