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Inside Informed Momentum: Volatility, current market trends, and what lies ahead

Tune in for a Q&A session with IMC’s Head of Distribution Mark Osterkamp and CIO Travis Prentice as they discuss some of the most common questions we’re getting from clients.

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Factor Research

Back to the Future

This paper explores how variations in the lookback period—the time window used to measure prior returns—shape momentum’s results across global markets. By systematically comparing the standard 12-month-minus-one (12M1) approach with alternative lookback constructions, we aim to reveal how the time dimension of momentum influences future outcomes and the persistence of its edge.

Smooth Sailing

Could the manner in which momentum manifests – through smooth vs. discrete price movements, or varying levels of volatility – impact its effectiveness? This paper examines how the nature of momentum’s path influences its payoff by drawing on academic literature, assessing empirical evidence on how return patterns influence performance, and outlining the potential implications for portfolio construction.

Momentum and Tax Efficiency

Momentum investing naturally results in higher portfolio turnover than traditional buy-and-hold strategies, which often invites concerns about the impact of trading costs and taxes on overall returns. This research summary, along with our recent paper, Momentum and Trading Costs, provides compelling evidence that these costs need not erode the momentum premium.

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Insights

Rising Tides: Gridlock Ahead: Batteries Take the Wheel in the AI Era

Observations from the IMC Research Process - Global battery capacity is set to jump 67% this year to 617GWh — and grow tenfold by 2035. The driver isn’t EVs anymore — it’s AI’s appetite for power.

A Historic Beta Run Is Powering this Market Rally

Beta’s outperformance run for the last two consecutive quarters has been historic, especially in small cap.

Rising Tides: Total Recall: Memory Becomes the AI Trade

Observations from the IMC Research Process - With cloud giants racing to expand data center footprints to support AI workloads, tight supply is creating the first multi-year upcycle in storage in decades.

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Market Analysis

Low quality massively outperformed across US equities in October

High beta, non-earners and momentum broadly outperformed in September

Global equities broadly advance in August, led by small and micro cap

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Commentary

IMC US Small Cap

IMC US Micro Cap

IMC US Ultra Micro Cap

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