RISING TIDES
Observations from the IMC Research Process

Biotech Repriced

Biotech’s risk premium is collapsing — clinical momentum, pricing clarity, resurgent deal flow are driving a sustained rerating across the sector.

• Policy Reset. Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Lilly have all struck breakthrough pricing deals with the Trump administration. GLP-1 therapies now receive expanded Medicare/Medicaid coverage, materially widening patient access. In return, manufacturers get regulatory stability and faster approvals – ending years of pricing uncertainty and freeing balance sheets for M&A.
• M&A is Accelerating. After an unusually quiet 18-month stretch, Big Pharma is back on offense: Lilly’s purchase of Verve restarted gene-editing deal activity, followed by a Novartis-Pfizer bidding battle for Metsera’s cardiometabolic assets. The latest – Merck added to the surge by acquiring Cidara. The takeaway: RNA, gene therapy, and precision-oncology assets have shifted from ‘science projects’ to de-risked acquisition targets. According to RBC, industry dealmaking has already reached $80B YTD vs. $52B in 2024, underscoring how rapidly strategic appetite is recovering.
• Trial Triumphs Fuel Rally. Clinical momentum is building across precision oncology, RNA, and obesity. Celcuity’s VIKTORIA-1 trial in HR+/HER2- for breast cancer delivered clean Phase 3 data;  Cogent posted deep responses in systemic mastocytosis; Praxis beat expectations in essential tremor with functional gains that support over $1B peak sales; Stoke continues to impress in Dravet syndrome with seizure reduction and safety. Terns‘ dual-agonist GLP-1 program is tracking best-in-class; BridgeBio notched two rare disease wins in a single week; Natera is compounding 30%+ volume growth in oncology diagnostics; Ionis is on track to launch Olezarsen in 2026 — making this the broadest pipeline validation cycle biotech has seen in years.