RISING TIDES
Observations from the IMC Research Process

From Obscure to Critical – Rare Earths Enter a Supercycle

Prices of rare earth elements (REEs) – a group of 17 obscure metals used in everything from EV’s, wind turbines, national defense systems, and consumer electronics – are suddenly acting like oil in the 1970’s.  Geopolitically charged, price-spiking, and strategically indispensable.

• The Geopolitical Chokepoint. China currently controls 90% of REE refining capacity and 70% of mined output. Tighter export controls have turned a chronic supply risk into an acute policy risk. The result: governments are scrambling to diversify away from Chinese dominance, pushing REE miners across the globe through 52-week highs.
• Strategic Response. The US Department of Defense committed $400 million to MP Materials, securing long-term supply at 2x current market prices while funding a 10-fold capacity expansion. Australia and Canada are considering price floors to ensure economic viability of domestic production – underscoring the shift from market economics to strategic resource planning.
• Momentum Leaders. All breaking 52-week highs…CMOC and China Nonferrous in China; MP Materials (MP), Idaho Strategic (IDR), American Resources (AREC), and Energy Fuels (UUUU) in the US; Lynas Rare Earths and Iluka Resources in Australia.

Why it matters? REEs were once niche metals buried in commodity footnotes. Now, they are leverage points in geopolitical strategy. If the current trajectory holds, REEs may well define the next commodity supercycle – one driven not by oil wells, but by magnets, batteries, and advanced defense systems.