RISING TIDES
Observations from the IMC Research Process

Greek Banks: From Crisis to Capital Return Machines

60% of Greek bank market cap is projected to be returned to shareholders by 2026.

• Loan growth is back a decade after crisis. Following a financial meltdown in late 2009, Greek banks were nationalized and required massive capital injections from the government. The landscape has since shifted. Greece was one of the largest beneficiaries of EU post-Covid recovery funds—receiving over €21 billion starting in 2021, equivalent to 17% of GDP. Combined with record tourism receipts and ongoing industry consolidation, these tailwinds have propelled a banking sector turnaround. Loan growth is now nearly twice the pace of developed European peers.
• Capital returns inflecting. Greece’s lenders received ECB approval last year to resume dividend payments for the first time since the Greek debt crisis after they cut bad loan ratios, reduced state ownership, and returned to profitability. Capital returns are expected to hit 50-70% by FY26.
• Momentum is building. In the last 6 months, there have been a flurry of acquisition, capital return, and better-than-expected loan growth announcements from banks like Piraeus, National Bank of Greece, and Alpha Services.